V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.19%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
4.20%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
4.20%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8516 | 86.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0889 | 11.02*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0703 | 0.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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