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V-Lab

Schwab Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

4.50%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

4.46%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

4.35%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Schwab Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8740
21.65***
γleverage0.0630
2.48**
λ₁tau intercept0.0711
0.38
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.906

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8740
21.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0630
2.48**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0711
0.38
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days