V-Lab
Schwab Core Bond ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
4.50%
increased by 0.13%
1 Week
4.46%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
4.35%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2025 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8740 | 21.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.0630 | 2.48** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0711 | 0.38 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8740 | 21.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0630 | 2.48** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0711 | 0.38 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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