Global X S&P 500 Christin VL MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
9.77%
1 Week
283,118.99%
1 Month
2,422,737,790,186,961,500,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2729 trading days (~10.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7497 | 1,988.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 2.00** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 663.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.6071 | 173.69*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0225 | 356.44*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9775 | 1,372.96*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2729 days
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