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V-Lab

Global X S&P 500 Christin VL MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

9.77%

decreased by 10.14%

1 Week

283,118.99%

increased by 283,099.08%

1 Month

2,422,737,790,186,961,500,000,000.00%

increased by 2,422,737,790,186,961,500,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Global X S&P 500 Christin VL MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 24, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2729 trading days (~10.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 67% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7497
1,988.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
2.00**
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
663.13***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

8.6071
173.69***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0225
356.44***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9775
1,372.96***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2729 days