V-Lab
Global X S&P 500 Christin VL MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
6.50%
1 Week
9.86%
1 Month
18.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 6243314768165359 trading days (~24775058603830.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.9199 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1602 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.3060 | 34.45*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5949 | 86.61*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
6243314768165359 days
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