V-Lab
Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
69.30%
increased by 3.46%
1 Week
73.69%
increased by 7.85%
1 Month
75.11%
increased by 9.27%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1309 | 6.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4486 | 23.04*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5586 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.355
Half-life:
1 days
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