Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
75.14%
increased by 8.00%
1 Week
73.78%
increased by 6.64%
1 Month
73.41%
increased by 6.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0753 | 6.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3196 | 16.77*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5309 | 0.14 |
Persistence:
0.235
Half-life:
0 days
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