Skip to main content
V-Lab

Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

75.14%

increased by 8.00%

1 Week

73.78%

increased by 6.64%

1 Month

73.41%

increased by 6.27%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Grayscale Bitcoin Miners ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 30, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0753
6.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3196
16.77***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.13
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.5309
0.14

Persistence:

0.235

Half-life:

0 days