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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

12.26%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

12.81%

increased by 0.09%

1 Month

14.29%

increased by 1.57%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8297
199.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2209
43.38***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0123
5.87***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0580
4.44***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9312
62.80***

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days