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State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

31.64%

decreased by 2.52%

1 Week

30.66%

decreased by 3.50%

1 Month

27.40%

decreased by 6.76%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8333
59.43***
γleverage0.2201
12.18***
λ₁tau intercept0.0164
1.35
λ₂forecast adj.0.0742
1.56
λ₃tau persistence0.9117
16.00***

0.943

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8333
59.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2201
12.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0164
1.35
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0742
1.56
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9117
16.00***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days