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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.97%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

11.66%

increased by 0.53%

1 Month

13.44%

increased by 2.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

61
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8296
199.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2211
43.44***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0123
5.88***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0577
4.45***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9315
63.17***

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days