V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.97%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
11.66%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
13.44%
increased by 2.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8296 | 199.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2211 | 43.44*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0123 | 5.88*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0577 | 4.45*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9315 | 63.17*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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