V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.26%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
12.81%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
14.29%
increased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8297 | 199.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2209 | 43.38*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0123 | 5.87*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0580 | 4.44*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9312 | 62.80*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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