V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.60%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
13.91%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Month
14.73%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8299 | 199.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2204 | 43.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0124 | 5.85*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0580 | 4.43*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9311 | 62.55*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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