V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.63%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
10.99%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
12.18%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0245 | 20.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0007 | 0.24 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8892 | 387.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1815 | 27.63*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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