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State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

30.37%

decreased by 1.72%

1 Week

30.00%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Month

28.64%

decreased by 3.45%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0247
5.13***
αARCH0.0009
0.08
βGARCH0.8881
96.05***
γleverage0.1835
6.99***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0247
5.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0009
0.08
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8881
96.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1835
6.99***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days