V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
11.80%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
12.09%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
13.04%
increased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0245 | 20.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0009 | 0.29 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8892 | 387.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1812 | 27.60*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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