V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
10.80%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
11.15%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
12.30%
increased by 1.88%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0245 | 5.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0008 | 0.06 |
| βGARCH | 0.8891 | 96.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.1815 | 6.92*** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0245 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0008 | 0.06 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8891 | 96.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1815 | 6.92*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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