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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

11.80%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

12.09%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

13.04%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0245
20.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0009
0.29
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8892
387.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1812
27.60***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days