State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
12.72%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
12.95%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
13.73%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0244 | 5.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0005 | 0.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.8895 | 97.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.1813 | 6.97*** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0244 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0005 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8895 | 97.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1813 | 6.97*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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