V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.65%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
20.78%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
21.23%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 365% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 365% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0470 | 5.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0295 | 2.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8955 | 83.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.1076 | 4.23*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0470 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0295 | 2.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8955 | 83.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1076 | 4.23*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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