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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

20.65%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

20.78%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

21.23%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 365% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 365% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0470
5.09***
αARCH0.0295
2.68***
βGARCH0.8955
83.15***
γleverage0.1076
4.23***

0.979

Persistence

32d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0470
5.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0295
2.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8955
83.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1076
4.23***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days