V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
19.74%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
19.91%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
20.51%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 366% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 366% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0468 | 5.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0294 | 2.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8958 | 83.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.1073 | 4.23*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0468 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0294 | 2.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8958 | 83.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1073 | 4.23*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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