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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

21.34%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

21.44%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Month

21.79%

decreased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 367% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0473
20.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0296
10.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8949
329.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1085
17.00***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days