iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
24.65%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
24.61%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Month
24.45%
decreased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 367% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 367% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0467 | 5.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0292 | 2.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8961 | 83.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.1071 | 4.23*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0467 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0292 | 2.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8961 | 83.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1071 | 4.23*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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