V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
17.81%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
18.09%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
19.02%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 364% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 364% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0471 | 5.09*** |
| αARCH | 0.0296 | 2.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8952 | 82.86*** |
| γleverage | 0.1078 | 4.23*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0471 | 5.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0296 | 2.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8952 | 82.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1078 | 4.23*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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