V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
29.24%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
29.04%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Month
28.31%
decreased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 365% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0462 | 20.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0294 | 10.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8963 | 332.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1072 | 16.92*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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