V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.57%
1 Week
20.73%
1 Month
21.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 344% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.67 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0424 | 6.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0794 | 6.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9006 | 83.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.4187 | 4.85*** |
| δpower | 1.6716 | 8.68*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0424 | 6.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 6.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9006 | 83.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4187 | 4.85*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6716 | 8.68*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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