V-Lab
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
1.50%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
1.50%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
1.50%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2002 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 855 trading days (~3.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~855 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 1.08 |
| αARCH | 0.0613 | 7.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9387 | 131.27*** |
| γleverage | -0.0246 | -0.38 |
| δpower | 1.9615 | 7.69*** |
0.999
Persistence855d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 1.08 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0613 | 7.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9387 | 131.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0246 | -0.38 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9615 | 7.69*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
855 days
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