V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
17.97%
1 Week
18.26%
1 Month
19.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 399% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.27 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0311 | 6.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0798 | 8.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9144 | 110.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.5591 | 5.37*** |
| δpower | 1.2719 | 9.13*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0311 | 6.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0798 | 8.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9144 | 110.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5591 | 5.37*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2719 | 9.13*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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