V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
22.31%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
22.45%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
22.89%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1745 | 5.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0968 | 8.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8662 | 67.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0361 | 0.76 |
| γ2 | -0.1035 | -1.44 |
| γ3 | 0.1842 | 3.67*** |
| γ4 | -0.2324 | -5.51*** |
| γ5 | 0.1485 | 3.50*** |
| γ6 | 0.0090 | 0.17 |
| γ7 | -0.0611 | -1.16 |
| γ8 | 0.0130 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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