V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
21.97%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
22.11%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
22.52%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1672 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0966 | 8.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8667 | 68.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0340 | 0.72 |
| γ2 | -0.1001 | -1.39 |
| γ3 | 0.1815 | 3.61*** |
| γ4 | -0.2309 | -5.48*** |
| γ5 | 0.1491 | 3.54*** |
| γ6 | 0.0084 | 0.16 |
| γ7 | -0.0634 | -1.21 |
| γ8 | 0.0166 | 0.48 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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