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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

19.82%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

20.10%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Month

20.96%

increased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1689
5.80***
αARCH0.0971
8.55***
βGARCH0.8659
68.05***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0325
0.70
γ2-0.0966
-1.36
γ30.1777
3.55***
γ4-0.2289
-5.49***
γ50.1503
3.66***
γ60.0076
0.15
γ7-0.0677
-1.32
γ80.0225
0.66

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1689
5.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0971
8.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8659
68.05***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0325
0.70
γ2-0.0966
-1.36
γ30.1777
3.55***
γ4-0.2289
-5.49***
γ50.1503
3.66***
γ60.0076
0.15
γ7-0.0677
-1.32
γ80.0225
0.66

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days