V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.98%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
18.43%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
19.77%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1636 | 5.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0970 | 8.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8659 | 67.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0325 | 0.69 |
| γ2 | -0.0971 | -1.36 |
| γ3 | 0.1787 | 3.56*** |
| γ4 | -0.2293 | -5.49*** |
| γ5 | 0.1499 | 3.63*** |
| γ6 | 0.0079 | 0.16 |
| γ7 | -0.0670 | -1.30 |
| γ8 | 0.0217 | 0.63 |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1636 | 5.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0970 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8659 | 67.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0325 | 0.69 |
| γ2 | -0.0971 | -1.36 |
| γ3 | 0.1787 | 3.56*** |
| γ4 | -0.2293 | -5.49*** |
| γ5 | 0.1499 | 3.63*** |
| γ6 | 0.0079 | 0.16 |
| γ7 | -0.0670 | -1.30 |
| γ8 | 0.0217 | 0.63 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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