V-Lab
iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
18.09%
increased by 0.97%
1 Week
18.53%
increased by 1.41%
1 Month
19.87%
increased by 2.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1682 | 5.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0969 | 8.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8661 | 68.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0349 | 0.74 |
| γ2 | -0.1013 | -1.42 |
| γ3 | 0.1817 | 3.62*** |
| γ4 | -0.2306 | -5.51*** |
| γ5 | 0.1495 | 3.61*** |
| γ6 | 0.0079 | 0.16 |
| γ7 | -0.0654 | -1.27 |
| γ8 | 0.0199 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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