State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
36.65%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
36.62%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
36.49%
decreased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1143 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0586 | 6.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9328 | 97.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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