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State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

30.19%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

30.27%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Month

30.57%

decreased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1100
5.89***
αARCH0.0582
6.60***
βGARCH0.9331
97.82***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0008
0.93

0.991

Persistence

79d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1100
5.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0582
6.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9331
97.82***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0008
0.93

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days