V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
35.99%
increased by 2.23%
1 Week
35.97%
increased by 2.21%
1 Month
35.87%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1128 | 5.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0585 | 6.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9328 | 97.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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