State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
30.19%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
30.27%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Month
30.57%
decreased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~79 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1100 | 5.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0582 | 6.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9331 | 97.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 0.93 |
0.991
Persistence79d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1100 | 5.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0582 | 6.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9331 | 97.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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