V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
36.83%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Week
36.79%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
36.66%
decreased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1117 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0583 | 6.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9332 | 97.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
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