V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
33.72%
increased by 0.69%
1 Week
33.74%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
33.79%
increased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1107 | 5.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.0583 | 6.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9331 | 97.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 0.92 |
0.991
Persistence80d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1107 | 5.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0583 | 6.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9331 | 97.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0008 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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