V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
24.22%
increased by 7.70%
1 Week
18.90%
increased by 2.38%
1 Month
17.58%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3651 | 2.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0726 | 1.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 60.9929 | 0.68 |
| γ2 | -163.5802 | -1.29 |
| γ3 | 217.8794 | 3.47*** |
| γ4 | -203.7660 | -4.33*** |
| γ5 | 130.9390 | 3.82*** |
Persistence:
0.073
Half-life:
0 days
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