Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
46.16%
decreased by 3.52%
1 Week
49.01%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
49.66%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 9, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6197 | 5.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1496 | 1.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 3.5154 | 3.53*** |
Persistence:
0.150
Half-life:
0 days
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