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V-Lab
V-Lab

Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

59.68%

increased by 7.38%

1 Week

64.30%

increased by 12.00%

1 Month

66.19%

increased by 13.89%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 24, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 2.68) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst7.2374
3.76***
αARCH0.3220
3.07***
βGARCH0.1382
1.89*
γleverage2.6842
3.31***

0.460

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.2374
3.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3220
3.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1382
1.89*
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

2.6842
3.31***

Persistence:

0.460

Half-life:

1 days