V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
59.68%
increased by 7.38%
1 Week
64.30%
increased by 12.00%
1 Month
66.19%
increased by 13.89%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 2.68) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 7.2374 | 3.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.3220 | 3.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1382 | 1.89* |
| γleverage | 2.6842 | 3.31*** |
0.460
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.2374 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3220 | 3.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1382 | 1.89* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 2.6842 | 3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.460
Half-life:
1 days
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