V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
92.31%
increased by 46.54%
1 Week
72.93%
increased by 27.16%
1 Month
65.61%
increased by 19.84%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 157% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 157% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6801 | 2.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.6656 | 3.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3915 | 1.84* |
| γleverage | -0.2925 | -2.37** |
0.391
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6801 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6656 | 3.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3915 | 1.84* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2925 | -2.37** |
Persistence:
0.391
Half-life:
1 days
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