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V-Lab
V-Lab

Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

88.87%

increased by 1.88%

1 Week

88.56%

increased by 1.57%

1 Month

87.51%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

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graph of Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 24, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 5.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst27.0010
0.81
αARCH0.0975
2.11**
βGARCH0.9743
40.22***
νDF5.4117
0.43

0.974

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

27.0010
0.81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0975
2.11**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9743
40.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4117
0.43

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days