V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
48.93%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
49.46%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
51.47%
increased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 33.4961 | 4.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0676 | 14.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9957 | 145.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2662 | 1.74* |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
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