V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
29.52%
increased by 5.21%
1 Week
29.81%
increased by 5.50%
1 Month
30.94%
increased by 6.63%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 37.7943 | 6.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0879 | 15.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 282.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3122 | 2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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