Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
59.98%
increased by 1.90%
1 Week
60.96%
increased by 2.88%
1 Month
63.92%
increased by 5.84%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 5.70 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 20.5230 | 0.71 |
| αscore | 0.0922 | 1.53 |
| βpersistence | 0.9608 | 21.86*** |
| νDF | 5.6954 | 0.29 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 20.5230 | 0.71 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0922 | 1.53 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9608 | 21.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6954 | 0.29 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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