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V-Lab

Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

48.93%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Week

49.46%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

51.47%

increased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 24, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

33.4961
4.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0676
14.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9957
145.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.2662
1.74*

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

160 days