V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
88.87%
increased by 1.88%
1 Week
88.56%
increased by 1.57%
1 Month
87.51%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 5.41 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 27.0010 | 0.81 |
| αARCH | 0.0975 | 2.11** |
| βGARCH | 0.9743 | 40.22*** |
| νDF | 5.4117 | 0.43 |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 27.0010 | 0.81 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0975 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9743 | 40.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4117 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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