V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.53%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
23.39%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
22.88%
decreased by 1.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1754 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0519 | 19.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9873 | 230.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0082 | 4.19*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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