abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
23.90%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
23.75%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
23.20%
decreased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1727 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0523 | 19.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9870 | 227.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0028 | 4.16*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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