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abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

24.51%

increased by 0.79%

1 Week

24.37%

increased by 0.65%

1 Month

23.84%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 5.52 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.1968
0.92
αscore0.0520
5.60***
βpersistence0.9885
73.05***
νDF5.5177
1.04

0.989

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.1968
0.92
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0520
5.60***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9885
73.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.5177
1.04

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days