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abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

23.53%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

23.39%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

22.88%

decreased by 1.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1754
3.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0519
19.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9873
230.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0082
4.19***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days