V-Lab
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
24.24%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
24.09%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
23.53%
decreased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 14, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1822 | 3.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0519 | 19.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 233.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.0030 | 4.24*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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