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abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

23.90%

decreased by 1.13%

1 Week

23.75%

decreased by 1.28%

1 Month

23.20%

decreased by 1.83%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 14, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1727
3.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0523
19.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9870
227.32***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.0028
4.16***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days