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Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

29.46%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

29.62%

increased by 0.18%

1 Month

30.11%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 8, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 4.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run4.0459
0.56
αscore0.0387
0.83
βpersistence0.9601
13.73***
νDF4.4440
0.25

0.960

Persistence

17d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

4.0459
0.56
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0387
0.83
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9601
13.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4440
0.25

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days