Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
29.46%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
29.62%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
30.11%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 8, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-lifev = 4.44 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 4.0459 | 0.56 |
| αscore | 0.0387 | 0.83 |
| βpersistence | 0.9601 | 13.73*** |
| νDF | 4.4440 | 0.25 |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 4.0459 | 0.56 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0387 | 0.83 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9601 | 13.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4440 | 0.25 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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