V-Lab
Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
32.05%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
32.05%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
32.05%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 8, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifev = 4.26 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0709 | 0.52 |
| αARCH | 0.0360 | 0.83 |
| βGARCH | 0.9629 | 13.78*** |
| νDF | 4.2644 | 0.26 |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0709 | 0.52 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0360 | 0.83 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9629 | 13.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2644 | 0.26 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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