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Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

32.05%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

32.05%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Month

32.05%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 8, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifev = 4.26 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.0709
0.52
αARCH0.0360
0.83
βGARCH0.9629
13.78***
νDF4.2644
0.26

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.0709
0.52
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0360
0.83
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9629
13.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2644
0.26

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days