Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
12.13%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
12.33%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
12.36%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6076 | 8.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0348 | 0.15 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| νDF | 21.9594 | 0.01 |
0.000
Persistence-
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6076 | 8.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0348 | 0.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 21.9594 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.000
Half-life:
-
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