V-Lab
Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
12.10%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
12.13%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
12.23%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 22.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6273 | 7.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0161 | 0.70 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9667 | 24.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 22.0636 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
Other Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs