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Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

14.04%

increased by 0.82%

1 Week

13.93%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

13.56%

increased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-lifev = 11.77 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.6350
0.55
αscore0.0180
0.11
βpersistence0.9549
4.28***
νDF11.7668
0.01

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.6350
0.55
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0180
0.11
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9549
4.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

11.7668
0.01

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days