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Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

12.10%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

12.13%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

12.23%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 9, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 22.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6273
7.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0161
0.70
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9667
24.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

22.0636
0.04

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

20 days