Ishares S&P 500 EX S&P 1 ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
13.26%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
13.26%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
13.26%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 7, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0246 | 0.12 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 | |
| 0.9999 | 0.08 | |
| -1.5720 | -0.01 |
Estimation Period:
Jul 9, 2025 to Jul 2, 2026
Jul 9, 2025 to Jul 2, 2026
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