V-Lab
Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
13.44%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
13.45%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
13.45%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9467 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9444 | 9.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.9581 | -0.51 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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