Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
11.27%
1 Week
451,446,610,796.89%
1 Month
14,190,412,256,167,894,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 59% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 41 | |
| αARCH | 0.8979 | 103.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
| γleverage | -0.3325 | -23.64*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.9775 | 61.21*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
0.732
Persistence2d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8979 | 103.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3325 | -23.64*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9775 | 61.21*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.732
Half-life:
2 days
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