Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
7.52%
increased by 3.09%
1 Week
5.12%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
4.05%
decreased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0451 | |
| βGARCH | 0.2445 | |
| γleverage | 0.0407 | |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0225 | |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0039 | |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5386 |
0.310
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2445 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0407 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0225 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0039 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5386 |
Persistence:
0.310
Half-life:
1 days
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