Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.74%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
13.74%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
13.74%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1013 | 3.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9521 | 11.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2357 | 0.29 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1013 | 3.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9521 | 11.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2357 | 0.29 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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