Gabelli Opportunities in Live and Sports ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.55%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
14.55%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
14.55%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0038 | 2.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9441 | 9.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2945 | -0.14 |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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