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Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

159.78%

increased by 8.98%

1 Week

169.83%

increased by 19.03%

1 Month

179.09%

increased by 28.29%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC

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graph of Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3528
5.36***
αARCH0.2190
2.40**
βGARCH0.5054
1.88*
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ11.5861
1.98**

0.724

Persistence

2d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3528
5.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2190
2.40**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5054
1.88*
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ11.5861
1.98**

Persistence:

0.724

Half-life:

2 days