V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
166.14%
increased by 20.26%
1 Week
177.23%
increased by 31.35%
1 Month
187.86%
increased by 41.98%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3161 | 5.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.2183 | 2.34** |
| βGARCH | 0.5178 | 1.90* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.6938 | 1.73* |
0.736
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3161 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2183 | 2.34** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5178 | 1.90* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.6938 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.736
Half-life:
2 days
Other Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs