V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
159.78%
increased by 8.98%
1 Week
169.83%
increased by 19.03%
1 Month
179.09%
increased by 28.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3528 | 5.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.2190 | 2.40** |
| βGARCH | 0.5054 | 1.88* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.5861 | 1.98** |
0.724
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3528 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2190 | 2.40** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5054 | 1.88* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.5861 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.724
Half-life:
2 days
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