Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
171.79%
decreased by 32.15%
1 Week
174.92%
decreased by 29.02%
1 Month
177.91%
decreased by 26.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3900 | 5.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.2283 | 2.57** |
| βGARCH | 0.4953 | 1.92* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.4402 | 2.17** |
0.724
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3900 | 5.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2283 | 2.57** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4953 | 1.92* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.4402 | 2.17** |
Persistence:
0.724
Half-life:
2 days
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