V-Lab
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
135.98%
decreased by 6.51%
1 Week
141.51%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Month
158.80%
increased by 16.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.48 |
| αARCH | 0.1262 | 2.21** |
| βGARCH | 0.8482 | 9.20*** |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1262 | 2.21** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8482 | 9.20*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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