Defiance Daily Target 2X Long LUNR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
344.27%
increased by 12.42%
1 Week
342.69%
increased by 10.84%
1 Month
336.91%
increased by 5.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.73 |
| αARCH | 0.1453 | 1.28 |
| βGARCH | 0.8360 | 11.22*** |
| γleverage | 0.0069 | 0.03 |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.73 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1453 | 1.28 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8360 | 11.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0069 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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