V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.94%
increased by 1.57%
1 Week
20.98%
increased by 1.61%
1 Month
21.17%
increased by 1.80%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0211 | 15.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0271 | 9.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9070 | 440.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1124 | 18.85*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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