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State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

20.38%

increased by 0.85%

1 Week

20.44%

increased by 0.91%

1 Month

20.67%

increased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0211
3.95***
αARCH0.0271
2.38**
βGARCH0.9070
110.29***
γleverage0.1123
4.71***

0.990

Persistence

71d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0211
3.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0271
2.38**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9070
110.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1123
4.71***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days