V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
31.84%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
31.70%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Month
31.18%
decreased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 15.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0272 | 9.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9071 | 440.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1123 | 18.77*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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