V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.38%
increased by 0.85%
1 Week
20.44%
increased by 0.91%
1 Month
20.67%
increased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~71 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0211 | 3.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0271 | 2.38** |
| βGARCH | 0.9070 | 110.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.1123 | 4.71*** |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0211 | 3.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0271 | 2.38** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9070 | 110.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1123 | 4.71*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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