V-Lab
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
15.93%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
16.10%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
16.73%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0211 | 3.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0273 | 2.40** |
| βGARCH | 0.9071 | 110.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.1116 | 4.68*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0211 | 3.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0273 | 2.40** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9071 | 110.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1116 | 4.68*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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