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V-Lab

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

19.66%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

19.74%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Month

20.03%

decreased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0211
15.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0271
9.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9070
440.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1124
18.85***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

71 days