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Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

9.03%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

9.65%

increased by 0.41%

1 Month

11.38%

increased by 2.14%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 24, 2015 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0350
3.85***
αARCH0.0106
0.25
βGARCH0.8516
25.02***
γleverage0.2050
3.44***

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0350
3.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0106
0.25
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8516
25.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2050
3.44***

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days