Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
9.03%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
9.65%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
11.38%
increased by 2.14%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0350 | 3.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0106 | 0.25 |
| βGARCH | 0.8516 | 25.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.2050 | 3.44*** |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0350 | 3.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0106 | 0.25 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8516 | 25.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2050 | 3.44*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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