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Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

11.93%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

12.24%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

13.17%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

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graph of Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 24, 2015 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0351
3.86***
αARCH0.0105
0.24
βGARCH0.8515
24.99***
γleverage0.2058
3.45***

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0351
3.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0105
0.24
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8515
24.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2058
3.45***

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days