V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.32%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
13.52%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
14.14%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0354 | 15.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0106 | 0.98 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8507 | 99.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2082 | 13.77*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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