Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.83%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
19.58%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Month
18.75%
decreased by 2.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0366 | 3.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.0146 | 0.35 |
| βGARCH | 0.8476 | 24.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.2022 | 3.34*** |
0.963
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0366 | 3.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0146 | 0.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8476 | 24.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2022 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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