V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.05%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
10.56%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
12.05%
increased by 1.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0356 | 15.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0105 | 0.97 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8501 | 99.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2095 | 13.88*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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