Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
20.40%
increased by 3.58%
1 Week
20.31%
increased by 3.49%
1 Month
19.99%
increased by 3.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 6.45 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3607 | 2.80*** |
| αscore | 0.1368 | 7.82*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9737 | 98.98*** |
| νDF | 6.4527 | 1.78* |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3607 | 2.80*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1368 | 7.82*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9737 | 98.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4527 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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