V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
868.16%
increased by 52.17%
1 Week
866.11%
increased by 50.12%
1 Month
857.99%
increased by 42.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.0499 | 15.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0926 | 131.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 6,196.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0001 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
292 days
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