V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
763.74%
decreased by 96.28%
1 Week
761.94%
decreased by 98.08%
1 Month
754.80%
decreased by 105.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.5686 | 15.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0925 | 131.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 6,196.43*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0002 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
292 days
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