Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
657.47%
decreased by 92.43%
1 Week
655.93%
decreased by 93.97%
1 Month
649.83%
decreased by 100.07%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.5209 | 3.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0917 | 32.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9976 | 1,566.15*** |
| νDF | 2.0001 |
0.998
Persistence293d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.5209 | 3.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0917 | 32.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 1,566.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0001 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
293 days
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