V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
1,195.84%
increased by 40.22%
1 Week
1,193.03%
increased by 37.41%
1 Month
1,181.91%
increased by 26.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Sep 4, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 17.4131 | 3.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0923 | 32.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9976 | 1,563.70*** |
| νDF | 2.0001 |
0.998
Persistence294d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.4131 | 3.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0923 | 32.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 1,563.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0001 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
294 days
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