V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
1,360.67%
decreased by 128.77%
1 Week
1,357.47%
decreased by 131.97%
1 Month
1,344.82%
decreased by 144.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 26.2992 | 15.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0926 | 132.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 6,235.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0001 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
293 days
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