V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
11.98%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
12.41%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
13.73%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. The volatility power δ = 1.34 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0432 | 14.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0822 | 0.33 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8758 | 108.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.22 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3351 | 23.83*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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