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V-Lab

Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

11.98%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

12.41%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

13.73%

increased by 1.13%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 24, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. The volatility power δ = 1.34 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0432
14.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0822
0.33
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8758
108.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.22
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3351
23.83***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days