Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.01%
increased by 1.49%
1 Week
18.03%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
15.42%
decreased by 2.10%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9417 | 2.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0983 | 4.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8191 | 22.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3036 | -0.26 |
| γ2 | 1.5246 | 0.90 |
| γ3 | -2.4366 | -2.22** |
| γ4 | 2.0249 | 2.15** |
| γ5 | -1.6330 | -1.95* |
| γ6 | 1.9430 | 2.44** |
| γ7 | -2.6708 | -4.07*** |
| γ8 | 2.9934 | 4.64*** |
| γ9 | -2.2499 | -3.22*** |
| γ10 | 1.0542 | 1.92* |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9417 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0983 | 4.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8191 | 22.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.3036 | -0.26 |
| γ2 | 1.5246 | 0.90 |
| γ3 | -2.4366 | -2.22** |
| γ4 | 2.0249 | 2.15** |
| γ5 | -1.6330 | -1.95* |
| γ6 | 1.9430 | 2.44** |
| γ7 | -2.6708 | -4.07*** |
| γ8 | 2.9934 | 4.64*** |
| γ9 | -2.2499 | -3.22*** |
| γ10 | 1.0542 | 1.92* |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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