V-Lab
Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
19.90%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
20.30%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
21.61%
increased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1516 | 5.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0910 | 7.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8843 | 67.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0150 | -1.14 |
| γ2 | 0.0399 | 2.12** |
| γ3 | -0.0362 | -3.91*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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