Invesco MSCI Sustainable Future ETF Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.94%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
19.40%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
20.91%
increased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 24, 2006 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1490 | 5.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0911 | 7.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8841 | 67.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0155 | -1.17 |
| γ2 | 0.0408 | 2.15** |
| γ3 | -0.0367 | -3.93*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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