Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
8.51%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
8.79%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
8.91%
decreased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9387 | 4.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1177 | 1.79* |
| βGARCH | 0.3678 | 0.77 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 62.2694 | 3.54*** |
| γ2 | -105.1506 | -3.71*** |
| γ3 | 79.6892 | 3.58*** |
| γ4 | -55.5632 | -3.59*** |
0.485
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9387 | 4.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1177 | 1.79* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3678 | 0.77 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 62.2694 | 3.54*** |
| γ2 | -105.1506 | -3.71*** |
| γ3 | 79.6892 | 3.58*** |
| γ4 | -55.5632 | -3.59*** |
Persistence:
0.485
Half-life:
1 days
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