V-Lab
Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4.02%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
4.17%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
4.22%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7061 | 6.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.1381 | 1.80* |
| βGARCH | 0.1993 | 0.35 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.1874 | -2.49** |
0.337
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7061 | 6.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1381 | 1.80* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1993 | 0.35 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.1874 | -2.49** |
Persistence:
0.337
Half-life:
1 days
Other Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs