V-Lab
Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
3.78%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
4.01%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
4.09%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 10, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7124 | 6.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1749 | 1.82* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2413 | 0.53 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.5888 | -2.21** |
Persistence:
0.416
Half-life:
1 days
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