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V-Lab

Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

3.66%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

3.73%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

3.97%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Franklin Ohio Municipal Income ETF AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 10, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 457 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 180% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0010
4.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0650
4.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8748
68.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1173
2.40**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

457 days