V-Lab
Fidelity WSE Orgn Bitcoin FD Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.11%
decreased by 1.13%
1 Week
32.79%
increased by 1.55%
1 Month
39.11%
increased by 7.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5827 | 13.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2119 | 8.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6962 | 63.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0579 | 1.53 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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