State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
20.31%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Week
20.47%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Month
21.03%
decreased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 98% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0467 | 30.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1386 | 32.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7732 | 240.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1355 | 16.73*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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