State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
17.23%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
17.42%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
18.10%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0285 | 20.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0903 | 38.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8967 | 355.26*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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