V-Lab
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.80%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
19.91%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
20.28%
decreased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 264% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 264% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0130 | 1.76* |
| αARCH | 0.1439 | 9.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9826 | 252.93*** |
| γleverage | -0.0819 | -5.61*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0130 | 1.76* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1439 | 9.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9826 | 252.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0819 | -5.61*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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