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V-Lab

State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

18.80%

increased by 0.11%

1 Week

18.92%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

19.36%

increased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 294% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0270
13.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0308
12.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9112
393.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0907
14.99***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days