V-Lab
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.63%
increased by 0.44%
1 Week
17.79%
increased by 0.60%
1 Month
18.36%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 295% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0269 | 13.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0307 | 12.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9115 | 395.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0905 | 15.01*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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