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State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

13.50%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

13.82%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

14.94%

increased by 1.22%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 295% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 295% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0267
3.47***
αARCH0.0306
3.13***
βGARCH0.9117
99.06***
γleverage0.0902
3.80***

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0267
3.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0306
3.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9117
99.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0902
3.80***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days