State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
14.86%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Week
15.12%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
16.04%
increased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 295% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 295% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0267 | 3.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.0306 | 3.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9117 | 99.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0902 | 3.80*** |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0267 | 3.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0306 | 3.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9117 | 99.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0902 | 3.80*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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