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State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

14.86%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

15.12%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

16.04%

increased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 295% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 295% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0267
3.47***
αARCH0.0306
3.13***
βGARCH0.9117
99.06***
γleverage0.0902
3.80***

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0267
3.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0306
3.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9117
99.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0902
3.80***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days