V-Lab
State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
17.74%
increased by 1.33%
1 Week
17.90%
increased by 1.49%
1 Month
18.45%
increased by 2.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 297% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 297% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0269 | 3.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.0306 | 3.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9115 | 98.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.0907 | 3.78*** |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0269 | 3.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0306 | 3.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9115 | 98.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0907 | 3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
Other State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs