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State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

17.74%

increased by 1.33%

1 Week

17.90%

increased by 1.49%

1 Month

18.45%

increased by 2.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 297% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 297% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0269
3.46***
αARCH0.0306
3.12***
βGARCH0.9115
98.83***
γleverage0.0907
3.78***

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0269
3.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0306
3.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9115
98.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0907
3.78***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days