V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.46%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Week
24.32%
decreased by 1.88%
1 Month
23.82%
decreased by 2.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0372 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8576 | 24.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.2418 | 3.56*** |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0372 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8576 | 24.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2418 | 3.56*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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