Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
38.56%
decreased by 2.79%
1 Week
38.00%
decreased by 3.35%
1 Month
35.97%
decreased by 5.38%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0363 | 8.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8597 | 98.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2387 | 13.99*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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