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V-Lab

Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

24.46%

decreased by 1.74%

1 Week

24.32%

decreased by 1.88%

1 Month

23.82%

decreased by 2.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2021 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0372
2.17**
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8576
24.88***
γleverage0.2418
3.56***

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0372
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8576
24.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2418
3.56***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days