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V-Lab

Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

19.18%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

18.78%

decreased by 0.96%

1 Month

17.62%

decreased by 2.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 24, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 193% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 193% more than positive returnsδ = 0.57 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0390
4.79***
αARCH0.0952
3.10***
βGARCH0.8878
28.14***
γleverage0.7384
2.72***
δpower0.5680
2.26**

0.959

Persistence

16d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0390
4.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0952
3.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8878
28.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7384
2.72***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5680
2.26**

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

16 days