V-Lab
Monarch Blue Chips Elite Index ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.18%
1 Week
18.78%
1 Month
17.62%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 24, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 193% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0390 | 4.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0952 | 3.10*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8878 | 28.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.7384 | 2.72*** |
| δpower | 0.5680 | 2.26** |
0.959
Persistence16d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0390 | 4.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0952 | 3.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8878 | 28.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7384 | 2.72*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5680 | 2.26** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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