Sprott Active Mtls & MNS ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
29.01%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Week
29.02%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Month
29.05%
decreased by 1.44%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0319 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0414 | 5.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9523 | 165.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -795.54*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 2.89*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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