State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
20.96%
1 Week
19.85%
1 Month
16.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 52% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0289 | 7.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.1861 | 14.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8019 | 63.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.2119 | 7.34*** |
| δpower | 0.9801 | 5.81*** |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0289 | 7.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1861 | 14.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8019 | 63.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2119 | 7.34*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.9801 | 5.81*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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