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State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

20.96%

increased by 1.89%

1 Week

19.85%

increased by 0.78%

1 Month

16.71%

decreased by 2.36%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 52% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.98 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 52% more than positive returnsδ = 0.98 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0289
7.03***
αARCH0.1861
14.33***
βGARCH0.8019
63.38***
γleverage0.2119
7.34***
δpower0.9801
5.81***

0.950

Persistence

14d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0289
7.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1861
14.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8019
63.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2119
7.34***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.9801
5.81***

Persistence:

0.950

Half-life:

14 days