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State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

26.97%

decreased by 1.06%

1 Week

26.24%

decreased by 1.79%

1 Month

24.09%

decreased by 3.94%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 29% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 29% more than positive returnsδ = 1.17 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0537
3.39***
αARCH0.1885
14.97***
βGARCH0.8018
62.70***
γleverage0.1074
4.26***
δpower1.1664
3.05***

0.955

Persistence

15d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0537
3.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1885
14.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8018
62.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1074
4.26***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1664
3.05***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days