State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.97%
1 Week
26.24%
1 Month
24.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 29% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0537 | 3.39*** |
| αARCH | 0.1885 | 14.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8018 | 62.70*** |
| γleverage | 0.1074 | 4.26*** |
| δpower | 1.1664 | 3.05*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0537 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1885 | 14.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8018 | 62.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1074 | 4.26*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1664 | 3.05*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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