V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
38.39%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
38.54%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Month
39.06%
decreased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 63 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2422 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0589 | 6.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9301 | 92.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0059 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
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