V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
35.91%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Week
35.95%
decreased by 1.29%
1 Month
36.06%
decreased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 22, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.62) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0452 | 2.00** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0685 | 9.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9185 | 119.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6161 | 2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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