V-Lab
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.78%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
12.35%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
14.12%
increased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.62) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0025 | 0.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 9.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8698 | 92.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6241 | 6.78*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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