V-Lab
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
15.50%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
15.69%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
16.34%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 395% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0308 | 15.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0342 | 7.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8785 | 303.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1349 | 16.35*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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