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V-Lab

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

15.50%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

15.69%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

16.34%

increased by 0.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 27, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 395% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0308
15.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0342
7.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8785
303.13***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1349
16.35***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days