V-Lab
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.42%
increased by 1.82%
1 Week
13.72%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
14.74%
increased by 3.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0307 | 3.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0331 | 1.88* |
| βGARCH | 0.8782 | 76.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.1381 | 4.19*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0307 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0331 | 1.88* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8782 | 76.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1381 | 4.19*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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