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V-Lab

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026

1 Day

13.42%

increased by 1.82%

1 Week

13.72%

increased by 2.12%

1 Month

14.74%

increased by 3.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI EAFE ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 27, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0307
3.76***
αARCH0.0331
1.88*
βGARCH0.8782
76.34***
γleverage0.1381
4.19***

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0307
3.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0331
1.88*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8782
76.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1381
4.19***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days