Skip to main content
V-Lab

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

16.04%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

16.36%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

17.16%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI EAFE ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 27, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0131
3.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8618
288.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1441
28.50***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2315
10.50***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8171
35.34***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days