V-Lab
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.04%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Week
16.36%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
17.16%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 2001 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0131 | 3.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8618 | 288.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1441 | 28.50*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2315 | 10.50*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8171 | 35.34*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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