V-Lab
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.14%
increased by 1.74%
1 Week
14.46%
increased by 2.06%
1 Month
15.40%
increased by 3.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0224 | 1.43 |
| βGARCH | 0.8603 | 73.25*** |
| γleverage | 0.1508 | 7.33*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0064 | 1.22 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0235 | 1.52 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9716 | 52.63*** |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0224 | 1.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8603 | 73.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1508 | 7.33*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0064 | 1.22 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0235 | 1.52 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9716 | 52.63*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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