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iShares MSCI EAFE ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

13.26%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

13.57%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

14.48%

increased by 1.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI EAFE ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 27, 2001 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0226
1.44
βGARCH0.8605
73.36***
γleverage0.1498
7.31***
λ₁tau intercept0.0063
1.22
λ₂forecast adj.0.0235
1.52
λ₃tau persistence0.9715
52.38***

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0226
1.44
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8605
73.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1498
7.31***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0063
1.22
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0235
1.52
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9715
52.38***

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days