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V-Lab

Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

10.55%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

10.96%

increased by 0.27%

1 Month

12.04%

increased by 1.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8472
51.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1880
15.30***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.7617
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days