V-Lab
Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
10.55%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
10.96%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
12.04%
increased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8472 | 51.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1880 | 15.30*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7617 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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