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Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

12.24%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

12.46%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Month

13.09%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8395
1.94*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0792
6.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9539
43.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2571
3.25***

Persistence:

0.954

Half-life:

15 days