Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.24%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
12.46%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
13.09%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8395 | 1.94* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0792 | 6.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9539 | 43.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2571 | 3.25*** |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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