V-Lab
Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
13.11%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
13.25%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
13.65%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8461 | 1.92* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0780 | 6.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9532 | 43.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2828 | 3.04*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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