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Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

12.58%

increased by 0.84%

1 Week

12.74%

increased by 1.00%

1 Month

13.19%

increased by 1.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 3.34 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7991
0.50
αARCH0.0790
1.52
βGARCH0.9508
10.63***
νDF3.3359
0.72

0.951

Persistence

14d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7991
0.50
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0790
1.52
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9508
10.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3359
0.72

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days