Skip to main content
V-Lab

Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

13.11%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

13.25%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

13.65%

decreased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8461
1.92*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0780
6.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9532
43.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2828
3.04***

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days