V-Lab
Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.58%
increased by 0.84%
1 Week
12.74%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
13.19%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-lifev = 3.34 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7991 | 0.50 |
| αARCH | 0.0790 | 1.52 |
| βGARCH | 0.9508 | 10.63*** |
| νDF | 3.3359 | 0.72 |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7991 | 0.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0790 | 1.52 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9508 | 10.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3359 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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